|















| |
In this section of the website are interesting
articles, links, and studies related to the housing industry. Many of the
readings are from The Texas Real Estate Center at Texas A&M - a wonderful
resource for many types of housing information.
Updated May 10, 2010
|
HousingHighlights
City of Waco newsletter
May/June |
|
Waco Habitat for Humanity Gains "Star" Status
By
Christopher Lazaro
A home recently completed by Waco Habitat for Humanity
achieved a level of energy efficiency that few homes in any
price range can boast. The nonprofit builder earned its
first 5-star Energy Star rating for the 2-bedroom home on
Carver Avenue in East Waco, making it a model of energy
efficiency for the community.
Using building methods that surpass the required building
code, such as spray foam insulation and upgraded heating/air
conditioning, the residents of this and other Habitat houses
can expect low utility bills and easy maintenance.

This achievement is just the beginning for Habitat. In
conjunction with Walmart, they officially launched their
Green Build Initiative on May 7, funded by a $63,000 grant
from the Walmart Foundation. Together they hope to make
green improvements to the next 10 homes they build, all in
an effort to reduce homeowners’ carbon footprint as well as
their electric bills. Carlos Lopez, Market Manager for
Walmart #76 expressed his pride in the initiative at the
launch event. “We’re very focused on making [Waco] a better
and more efficient place to live,” he said. Scott Connell
of the Waco Chamber of Commerce, another green pioneer in
Waco, also attended the event to show their support.
Through the Green Build Initiative, Waco Habitat for
Humanity will test alternative building methods that
decrease material use and reduce energy consumption. The
Walmart grant will also help fund the installation of energy
data loggers for each of the homes, which will analyze the
electricity used to run each household. The data will be
used to determine how to make future Habitat homes more
efficient, even as Energy Star criteria grow more and more
stringent. “We want the highest rating possible on all of
our homes,” Waco Habitat Executive Director John Alexander
said with resolve. This partnership with Walmart could be
that push to get them to their goal.
To learn more about the Green
Build Initiative and other Waco Habitat for Humanity
programs, visit their website at
http://www.wacohabitat.org.
|
|
HousingHighlights
City of Waco newsletter
May/June
|
|
A
Local Church "Comes Together" to Restore
Community
By Christopher Lazaro
Each month, Josh Lawson
and a dedicated team of members at Antioch
Community Church march into the local
neighborhood with an arsenal of paintbrushes,
shovels, and lawnmowers to restore beauty and
hope to a once-dangerous area.
The
Come Together Work Day, held on the second
Saturday of each month, is part of a holistic
neighborhood revitalization strategy that seeks
to empower local residents to take ownership of
their homes, and more importantly, their lives.
Lawson, Director of Financial Restoration
Ministries for Antioch, believes that developing
relationships with the residents is the key to
sustainable change on these streets. “We
believe in serving practically, both in word and
in deed,” he added.
On a typical work day,
volunteer crews of 30 to 50 people jump in by
painting houses, cutting grass, picking up trash
in alleyways, even unburying sidewalks that had
been completely covered by grass. The first
work day took place last November on the 1800
and 1900 blocks of Sanger Avenue in the Sanger
Heights Neighborhood, and they eventually moved
their way up to 25th Street. This past Saturday
they headed over to 20th and Fort, and will
eventually work on every block in their target
area, which covers Waco Drive to Bosque
Boulevard, from 18th to 25th Streets. Each work
day ends in a block party at which neighbors
gather over lunch and discuss their vision for
the neighborhood.
In fact, the vision of
neighborhood residents is a major factor in the
revitalization of the area, and one that sets it
apart
from
other clean-up projects. “We want to impart
value back into the neighborhood and work with
the neighbors to see the neighborhood revived,”
Lawson said. So what have the neighbors
envisioned for their area? With speeding and a
lack of youth activities being the issues most
mentioned by neighbors, they foresee additional
sidewalks, stop signs, and street lights being
installed as a practical first step.
When asked about the
future of Come Together, Lawson expressed a
desire to see both churches and local businesses
join in, not just in their target area but in
the rest of Sanger Heights and throughout Waco.
In the end, though, he believes that lasting
change will only happen when the community
believes they can do it themselves. “It’s not
about the church doing it all, but the neighbors
and local businesses owning the process,” he
added.
For more information,
please contact Josh Lawson at
josh-lawson@aminternational.org.
|
|
May 10th
RRHA-TX News Release |
|
[Temple] The
Rural Rental Housing Association of Texas, Inc., the largest
state trade association of owners, operators, developers and
managers of rural multi-family housing, announces the
resignation of Jeff Crozier, as its Executive Director,
effective as of May 4, 2010. President Billie Shelburn thanks
Mr. Crozier for his three year tenure as Executive Director and
stated that the Association is stronger now than when he
accepted the position in 2007. Ms. Shelburn further states: “On
behalf of the Board of Directors, we wish Jeff well in his
future endeavors and appreciate his commitment of rural
multi-family housing”.
|
|
RECON
Real Estate Center Online News
May 7, 2010
|
|
SAHA OPENS ARTISAN AT CREEKSIDE
SAN ANTONIO (San
Antonio Business Journal) – Franklin Development
Inc. and the San Antonio Housing Authority have opened the Artisan
at Creekside apartment complex in the Old Union Stockyards close to
downtown.
A mix of one-, two- and three- bedroom
units, the 252-unit complex is reserved for families with incomes
that do not exceed 60 percent of San Antonio’s median income of
$57,200.
The $27.5 million project on 10.6 acres
off I-35 near US 90 was financed with tax credits and bonds issued
by the San Antonio Housing Finance Corp.
|
|
RECON
Real Estate Center Online News
May 7, 2010
|
|
DFW HOME SALES, PRICES IMPROVE
DALLAS (Dallas
Morning News) – Home sales in Dallas–Fort Worth
increased almost 5 percent from first quarter 2009 to the same in
2010, according to real estate data provider Clear Capital.
The California-based
company also ranked DFW in the country’s top five markets for home
price growth so far this year.
Among the houses for
sale in DFW, 40 percent are previously foreclosed properties,
compared with 29 percent nationwide, according to Clear Capital.
|
|
RECON
Real Estate Center Online News
May 4, 2010
|
|
Austin Initiates Neighborhood Partner
Program
AUSTIN (Austin
American-Statesman) – The city is accepting
applications for an experimental program that joins city dollars
with volunteer labor to enhance neighborhoods.
The Neighborhood Partner Program was
formed to split costs between the city and neighborhoods by using
volunteers on the projects, allowing small-scale improvements to be
made to neighborhoods by the people who live in them.
No funding has been set aside for the
new program, but city leaders hope to allocate some money in next
year’s budget, which will be available in October. The program will
build up to 20 projects over one year. The program could be expanded
if it is successful.
City officials say they do not intend
for the program to replace spending on parks, roads, sidewalk repair
and other public works improvements. Neither does the city intend to
delay or abandon projects it has already scheduled.
|
|
RECON
Real Estate Center Online News
April 13, 2010
|
|
SEGUIN
PREPARES HOUSING FOR CATERPILLAR
SEGUIN
(San
Antonio Business Journal) – Looking forward to the opening
of a one million sf Caterpillar factory and the 1,400 jobs that will
accompany it, this city just east of San Antonio has created three
incentives to spur housing development to accommodate the influx of
workers.
The first initiative
features a permit waiver program for new single-family homes. The
program includes waivers on building, electrical, plumbing and HVAC
permits. It will run through Sept. 30. Construction must begin
within 30 days of permit issuance and be completed within six
months. Eligible homes will be served by at least one Seguin
utility.
The second initiative is
offering between $2,000 and $3,000 toward the construction or
purchase of a new home to developers and buyers. Homes valued
between $100,000 and $150,000 can receive a $2,000 advance, while
homes priced above $150,000 will be eligible for a $3,000 incentive.
With the third
initiative, the city has offered to reimburse a portion of the
construction costs on the development of residential units in
existing commercial buildings downtown. The new residential units
must be on an upper-level vacant floor of an existing building to
qualify.
|
|
RECON
Real Estate Center Online News
April 13, 2010
|
|
HOUSTON HOMES RETAIN VALUE IN 2009
HOUSTON (Houston
Chronicle) – Area single-family home prices weathered the
economy well in 2009, remaining essentially flat with a median price
of $72.58 per sf, according to an annual home price analysis
commissioned by the Houston Chronicle.
The study analyzed the
median price per sf of 52,100 homes sold through the Multiple
Listings Service last year in Harris, Fort Bend, Montgomery,
Galveston and Brazoria Counties. To be included, neighborhoods must
have had at least five home sales. In 2009, 1,890 were listed, down
from over 2,000 in 2008. Of all homes surveyed, 18 percent were new.
Some of the survey’s
findings were:
-
homes priced between
$80,000 and $150,000 made up the largest segment sold in the
market;
-
81 percent of the
sales were outside Beltway 8;
-
Fort Bend was the
only county to post a noticeable increase in median value;
-
values in more than
120 of the area's largest neighborhoods, with at least 1,000
homes, declined or were flat last year, while about 80
registered increases;
-
the most expensive
home sale was $6.3 million, down from almost $10 million in
2008; and
-
values in more than
half of the neighborhoods surveyed were down — some by as much
as 50 percent.
While overall prices
remained stable, sales fell 25 percent from their peak in 2006.
The percentage of
foreclosure sales dipped slightly to 20.5 percent of total sales.
|
|
RECON
Real Estate Center Online News
April 13, 2010
|
|
TRAVIS PROPERTY VALUES FALL $6.5 BILLION
AUSTIN (Austin
American-Statesman) – Preliminary estimates of the market
value of Travis County properties are 5.3 percent below those in
2009, the first decline since 2003.
Patrick Brown, chief
appraiser with the Travis Central Appraisal District, estimated the
total market value of the property in the county at $116.9 billion,
$6.5 billion below last year’s total value of $123.4 billion.
"These are predictions,
not promises," said Brown, who is still analyzing the figures before
sending out notices to taxpayers in a few weeks.
The estimate means local
government leaders must decide whether to raise tax rates, cut
budgets or both to compensate for tens of millions of dollars in
lost property tax revenue.
Residential property
assessment increases are restricted to 10 percent or less by state
law. However, the law also requires that assessed values continue to
rise until they equal market values.
|
|
Fannie Mae News
April 6, 2010 |
|
WASHINGTON, D.C. — A new national survey
gauging attitudes toward housing finds that two-thirds of Americans
(65 percent) still prefer owning a home, despite the challenging
economic environment and the housing downturn. The Fannie Mae
National Housing Survey, conducted between December 2009 and January
2010, polled homeowners and renters to assess their confidence in
homeownership as an investment, the current state of their household
finances, views on the U.S. housing finance system and overall
confidence in the economy.
"Despite the
recent downturn in the housing sector, Americans continue to value
homeownership and think about their homes in ways that go much
deeper than the financial investment," said Mike Williams, President
and CEO, Fannie Mae. "The public also strongly believes in the
importance of upholding the financial commitment involved in buying
and owning a home, even during these challenging times when home
values have fallen."
Survey
Shows More Cautious Approach among Consumers
The survey
revealed that homeowners and renters alike are taking a more
cautious approach to homeownership. Nearly a quarter of renters
polled (23 percent) say they will buy a home later than once
planned. In addition, Americans with traditional, fixed-rate
mortgages with predictable payments are significantly more satisfied
than those with other types of mortgages. Respondents cited
non-financial reasons such as safety (43 percent) and quality of
local schools (33 percent) as driving factors in wanting to own a
home, ahead of financial considerations.
"Consumers are
still committed to owning a home, but are showing increased
cautiousness, regardless of whether they rent, own their homes
outright or have a mortgage," said Doug Duncan, Vice President and
Chief Economist, Fannie Mae. "They are rebalancing their attitudes
toward housing and homeownership by adopting a more realistic,
long-term approach, and are less willing to take risks. This focus
on sustainable housing is better for the economy, better for the
housing market and better for America's families."
A majority of
consumers (60 percent) believe that buying a home today is harder
than it was for their parents, and nearly seven in ten (68 percent)
think it will be even more difficult for their children. Most
respondents (88 percent) also believe that walking away from an
underwater mortgage is not acceptable, but those who know someone
who has defaulted are more than twice as likely to have seriously
considered stopping payments on their mortgage.
Key
Survey Findings
The following key
findings illustrate broad consumer perspectives on a range of
related issues, including: current attitudes toward the economy and
housing; present conditions for homeownership; owning versus
renting; the present climate for borrowing; current mortgage
satisfaction; the impact of being "underwater" on borrowers; and
attitudes toward defaulting. In some instances, data are compared to
a 2003 study on housing by Fannie Mae.
Housing and the Economy
- Eight in ten
respondents consider homeownership important to the economy.
- Only 31 percent
think that the economy is on the right track, but 44 percent
expect their personal financial situation to improve in the next
year. Delinquent borrowers are even more optimistic about the
future, with 63 percent expecting they will be in a stronger
financial position in the next year.
- Nearly two-thirds
of respondents (64 percent) think it is a good time to buy a
house, and nearly one in three (31 percent) think now is a very
good time to buy a house. This is nearly as many who said it was
a good time to buy in 2003 (66 percent), well before home prices
peaked.
- Nearly
three-quarters (73 percent) think housing prices will go up or
stay the same over the next year, including 37 percent who think
prices will increase and 36 percent who feel prices will remain
about the same.
Desirability of Homeownership
- Seven out of ten
respondents (70 percent) said they believe buying a home
continues to be one of the safest investments available. This
compares to 74 percent who think putting money into a bank
account (money market or savings account) is safe. In contrast,
only 17 percent believe buying stocks is a safe investment.
- Nearly two-thirds
(65 percent) of survey respondents prefer owning to renting,
citing non-financial reasons such as safety (43 percent) and
quality of local schools (33 percent) as driving factors in
wanting to own a home, ahead of economic considerations.
- Americans with
30-year fixed-rate mortgages are significantly more satisfied
(93 percent) than those with other types of mortgages (76
percent for those with hybrid ARMs and 68 percent for those with
ARMs).
Renters' Views on Renting and Homeownership
- Nearly eight in ten
renters (79 percent) participating in the survey believe that
renting has been positive for them and their families.
- The two most common
reasons cited by renters for choosing to rent instead of buy
are: the belief that their credit history is not good enough to
qualify for a mortgage (54 percent) and that they would be
unable to afford the purchase or upkeep of a home (47 percent).
- Nearly seven in ten
renters (67 percent) plan to buy a home at some point in the
future.
- Less than half (44
percent) of those who currently rent said they would buy a house
if they were to move, and 23 percent said they would purchase a
new home later than they planned.
Challenges Facing Homeowners
- Most respondents
(60 percent) believe it is harder for them to get a mortgage in
order to purchase a home than their parents. Nearly seven in ten
(68 percent) think it will be harder for the next generation.
- Survey respondents
cited poor credit (22 percent), their income (19 percent), job
security (15 percent) and having enough for a down payment (also
15 percent) as the top obstacles to obtaining a home loan.
- The majority (76
percent) expressed some degree of confidence that they would
receive the information they need to choose the right loan if
they bought or refinanced a home today, although only 47 percent
said they are "very confident."
Attitudes about Delinquency
- Nearly nine in ten
Americans (88 percent), including seven in ten who are
delinquent on their own mortgages, do not believe it is
acceptable for people to stop making payments on an underwater
mortgage, while eight percent believe it is acceptable.
- However, when asked
if financial distress makes stopping payments on an underwater
mortgage acceptable, 15 percent of respondents said yes, or
nearly double the eight percent who believe it is acceptable
generally.
- Both delinquent
mortgage borrowers and those current on their mortgage payments
are more than twice as likely to have seriously considered
stopping their payments if they know someone who has already
defaulted.
Survey
Methodology
From December 12,
2009 — January 12, 2010, Penn Schoen Berland, in partnership with
Oliver Wyman, conducted 3,451 telephone interviews with Americans
age 18 and older.
This included a
random sample of 3,051 members of the general population, including
887 homeowners, 1,110 mortgage borrowers, 908 renters, and 338
underwater borrowers (those who report owing at least 5% more on
their mortgage than their home is worth). The overall margin of
error for the general population sample is +/- 1.77% and larger for
subgroups.
An additional
oversample of 400 random national delinquent borrowers was also
polled. The margin of error for the delinquent oversample is +/-
4.9% and larger for subgroups. Delinquency was defined as not having
made a mortgage payment in the past 60 or more days.
For more information about the survey,
visit
http://www.fanniemae.com/about/housing-survey.html
|
|
3.18.10
|
|
Fannie Mae Releases Mission Performance
Report
WASHINGTON, DC — Fannie Mae (FNM/NYSE)
today released "Helping Housing Recover: A Report on Fannie Mae's
Mission Performance," which describes the company's efforts to
provide liquidity, stability and affordability to the nation's
housing finance system.
The report cites
$823.6 billion in funding the company provided last year to help
keep the single-family and multifamily mortgage markets operating.
The report also notes that the company enabled 1.7 million low- and
moderate-income families to obtain affordable housing in 2009, and
helped more than 160,000 struggling borrowers with Fannie Mae-owned
loans keep their homes through loan modification or other loan
assistance.
"Fannie Mae has been
asked to play a significant role and received significant government
assistance to support borrowers and the country's housing finance
system during these difficult economic times," said Michael J.
Williams, President and CEO. "We take this duty very seriously, and
this report chronicles our efforts to fulfill this critical mission.
We will build on our work with our industry partners and the
government to help struggling borrowers stay in their homes, provide
additional financing for affordable housing and restore the health
of America's housing market."
Through
the company's funding efforts, Fannie Mae provided financing in 2009
that helped:
-
2.5 million
borrowers refinance into loans with lower payments, better terms
or to meet other needs. Many borrowers were able to refinance
despite having lost equity.
-
600,000 borrowers
buy homes during the tightest mortgage credit market in decades.
-
372,000 rental units
be purchased, refinanced or rehabilitated.
To view the complete
report, please visit
http://www.fanniemae.com/about/mission-report.html
|
|
3.17.10
Source: Bloomberg, Craig Torres and Scott Lanman (03/16/2010) |
|
Fed To Stop Buying MBS
The Federal Reserve
renewed its commitment to keep key interest rates near zero for an
“extended period,” but also confirmed that it will stop buying
mortgage-backed securities at the end of March.
The Fed, whose
regular meeting began Tuesday, said that “housing starts have been
flat at depressed levels” and “employers remain reluctant to add to
payrolls” as a reason for extending the cap on interest rates.
“The Committee will
continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments
and will employ its policy tools as necessary to promote economic
recovery and price stability,” the Federal Open Market Committee
statement said.
|
|
Source:
The Wall Street Journal, James R. Hagerty (02/06/2010) and The
Washington Post, V. Dion Haynes (02/05/10) |
|
MBA Feels
Market Crunch, Sells Headquarters
The
Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) has sold its 10-story
headquarters for $41.3 million, below the $79 million the trade
group says it paid for the property in 2007.
The MBA, which
was underwater on its loan, refused to discuss its situation. A
spokesperson for the MBA said the organization has reached “an
agreement with all relevant parties.”
CoStar Inc., a
commercial real estate information firm, which purchased the
property, says it plans to move its headquarters into the
building.
"It's a little
bit of irony that in the middle of the mortgage crisis brought
on by the bad lending practices of many members of the Mortgage
Bankers Association that they got caught up in the same
problem," Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and
Policy Research, a liberal research group, told The Washington
Post.
As the real estate
market crashed, the association's membership has continued to
fall. Its membership fell to 2,500 from 3,000 in 2008, officials
had said.
The company was
“fortunate to be able to take advantage of what we see as a
historic opportunity to secure an exceptional asset at a greatly
reduced price,” Andrew Florance, CoStar’s CEO, said in a
statement.
|
| 3.17.10
Fannie Mae News Release
3.16.10
|
|
 |
Drop in Home Sales Underscores
Fragile Recovery According to Fannie Mae's Economic and
Mortgage Market Analysis Group
Consumer Spending Shows Promise Despite Low Levels of
Consumer Confidence
WASHINGTON, DC — Housing activity is expected to rebound
later this year but at a slower pace than previously
projected according to the March 2010 Economic Outlook
released today by Fannie Mae's (FNM/NYSE) Economics &
Mortgage Market Analysis Group. A surprising drop in new
and existing home sales disappointed, but the setback is
viewed as temporary with gains expected in the second
quarter then trending up on a sustainable basis by year
end. The outlook continues to call for moderate economic
growth of 3.0 percent for 2010, as the labor market
appears poised to create jobs, the service sector shows
improvement, and consumer spending joins in as part of
the economic storyline. Consumer spending grew a solid
0.3 percent in January, suggesting a pickup in the first
quarter despite the possibility of a slow down in
February.
"The
recent growth in consumer spending is a positive sign
for first quarter gains. However, anxiety over job and
income prospects continues to weigh on consumer
confidence which will likely lead to moderate spending
growth in the coming quarters," said Fannie Mae Chief
Economist Doug Duncan. "Strengthening growth in the
service sector and more favorable financial conditions
overall keep us optimistic that we are moving forward
with the recovery, albeit at a lower trajectory than
previously forecast."
The Economic Outlook
includes the Economic Developments commentary, Economic
Forecast, and Housing Forecast — which detail movement
of interest rates, the housing market, the mortgage
market, and the overall economic climate. To read the
full March 2010 Economic Outlook, visit the Economics &
Mortgage Market Analysis site at
www.fanniemae.com/media/economics/index.jhtml.
|
Texas
Department of Savings and Mortgage Lending Registration
and Licensing
Update
Certain HUD-Approved Housing Counselors Not Subject
to Registration and Licensing Under NMLS and Texas SML
Members of the Texas Foreclosure
Prevention Task Force (TFPTF) met recently with Texas Department of
Savings and Mortgage Lending Commissioner Douglas Foster,
Director of Licensing Sandra Weller, and General Counsel Caroline
Jones, to discuss the registration and licensing requirements for
HUD-Approved Housing Counselors under the Nationwide Mortgage
Licensing System (NMLS) and the Texas Savings and Mortgage Lending (SML).
Commissioner Foster understands
the critical work of the housing counselors in Texas and
indicated that certain counselors would not be subject to
registration and licensing under NMLS or Texas SML.
Specifically, counselors who
are an employee of a 501(c)(3) HUD-Approved Housing Counseling
Agency when engaged in activities (outlined in 24 CFR § 214)
such as foreclosure prevention counseling, pre-purchase
counseling, and reverse mortgage counseling, but not engaged in
originating loans or the decision making process of loan
orginination are NOT subject to registration and
licensing.
See detailed description here
for those NOT required to have this license:
The Texas Foreclosure Prevention Task Force would
like to thank Commissioner Foster and his staff for their
leadership on this important issue.
We would also like to thank the following Texas Foreclosure
Prevention Task Force representatives who attended the
meeting with the Commissioner and his staff: David Long,
President of Texas State Affordable Housing Corporation and TFPTF
Co-Chair, JoAnn DePenning, CEO of J DePenning Consulting,
Inc. and TFPTF Co-Chair, Steve Carriker Executive Director of
Texas Association of Community Development Corporations, Celine
Thomasson Management Consultant NeighborWorks America, Sherrie
Young Executive Director The Credit Coalition, Julie Gunter Sr.
Community Affairs Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, and
Todd Mark Vice President of Education for CCCS of Greater Dallas.
|
| 3.11.10
Source: Real Estate Center |
|
Headlines from the Front Lines
Dotzour Comments on Inflation,
Recession, China and REO Damage
Release No.
14-0311
COLLEGE STATION, Tex. (Real Estate
Center) — Chief Economist Dr. Mark Dotzour is crisscrossing the
nation delivering his economic message and collecting valuable
data for the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University. Here is
a recap of this week’s findings gleaned from meetings of the
National Association of Business Economics in Washington, D.C.
Among the comments he heard, were:
·
“Clearly there is
virtually no threat of inflation in the next two years.”
·
“There’s virtually no
chance of the Fed increasing interest rates (maybe a symbolic
small move aside).”
·
“The last recession,
the Fed waited until unemployment was 5.5 percent before
tightening.”
·
“We won't get to that
level for several years.”
·
“The threat is for
deflation across the globe, with the exception of China.”
·
“China’s money supply
is up 30 percent from last year. Our M3 (the Fed’s measure of
the money supply) is virtually unchanged from a year ago, and
available credit is less than last year.”
“The Congressional Budget Office
said the United States is going to be unable to pay for the
social contract with America,” said Dotzour. “It’s only a matter
of when and how the adjustments for failed promises have to take
place. Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security cannot be funded
at current levels of spending.”
Dotzour heard a representative of
Barclays, a worldwide financial services provider, say that the
real damage to housing values occurs when the real estate owned
(REO) dominos begin to topple.
“Just because a house gets
foreclosed, prices don't fall,” said Dotzour. “It's when the
REO is disposed that the value impact occurs. Foreclosures have
been postponed, first due to a moratorium and now due to banks
having to prove they tried a modification before they can
foreclose. So the major price impact on the housing market is
not over yet.”
If the core rate of inflation drops
to less than 1 percent, expect the Fed to re-engage in
quantitative easing (printing money to create inflation),
reported Dotzour.
The news from across the pond is not
good either, he said.
Dotzour heard a commodity specialist
say that China is purchasing way more hard metals than they need
for the level of industrial production that they are
experiencing. He said it was clear that they are stockpiling
these hard metal commodities.
“This reminds me of the oil market
the month before the summer Olympics in 2008,” said the Center’s
chief economist. “China hoarded diesel in case they had power
failures at the games.”
Prices for all commodities have
skyrocketed since the day the Fed announced quantitative
easing. An oil representative said that oil could stay high and
go higher because marginal demand is coming from China and
India.
“If and when China's bubble blows,
the entire commodity complex could come crashing down fast,”
said Dotzour.
“All of a sudden Russia, Brazil and
Australia don’t look so robust. Money will start flowing hard
into the United States. Again, this makes me think ten-year
Treasuries might look pretty saucy right now at 3.7 percent.
“Surprisingly,” reports Dotzour,
“nobody is really talking about states, cities and school
districts. Their layoffs and reduced spending will impact local
suppliers all over the country.”
“None of this is pretty,” said
Dotzour, “but investors and business people need to be aware of
the environment that they are working in.”
|
|