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In this section of the website are interesting articles, links, and studies related to the housing industry.  Many of the readings are from The Texas Real Estate Center at Texas A&M - a wonderful resource for many types of housing information.                                            

Updated May 10, 2010


HousingHighlights City of Waco newsletter

May/June

 

Waco Habitat for Humanity Gains "Star" Status  By Christopher Lazaro

A home recently completed by Waco Habitat for Humanity achieved a level of energy efficiency that few homes in any price range can boast.  The nonprofit builder earned its first 5-star Energy Star rating for the 2-bedroom home on Carver Avenue in East Waco, making it a model of energy efficiency for the community.

Using building methods that surpass the required building code, such as spray foam insulation and upgraded heating/air conditioning, the residents of this and other Habitat houses can expect low utility bills and easy maintenance.

This achievement is just the beginning for Habitat.  In conjunction with Walmart, they officially launched their Green Build Initiative on May 7, funded by a $63,000 grant from the Walmart Foundation.  Together they hope to make green improvements to the next 10 homes they build, all in an effort to reduce homeowners’ carbon footprint as well as their electric bills.  Carlos Lopez, Market Manager for Walmart #76 expressed his pride in the initiative at the launch event.  “We’re very focused on making [Waco] a better and more efficient place to live,” he said.  Scott Connell of the Waco Chamber of Commerce, another green pioneer in Waco, also attended the event to show their support.

Through the Green Build Initiative, Waco Habitat for Humanity will test alternative building methods that decrease material use and reduce energy consumption.  The Walmart grant will also help fund the installation of energy data loggers for each of the homes, which will analyze the electricity used to run each household.  The data will be used to determine how to make future Habitat homes more efficient, even as Energy Star criteria grow more and more stringent.  “We want the highest rating possible on all of our homes,” Waco Habitat Executive Director John Alexander said with resolve.  This partnership with Walmart could be that push to get them to their goal.

To learn more about the Green Build Initiative and other Waco Habitat for Humanity programs, visit their website at http://www.wacohabitat.org.


HousingHighlights City of Waco newsletter

May/June

 

 

A Local Church "Comes Together" to Restore Community By Christopher Lazaro

Each month, Josh Lawson and a dedicated team of members at Antioch Community Church march into the local neighborhood with an arsenal of paintbrushes, shovels, and lawnmowers to restore beauty and hope to a once-dangerous area.

The Come Together Work Day, held on the second Saturday of each month, is part of a holistic neighborhood revitalization strategy that seeks to empower local residents to take ownership of their homes, and more importantly, their lives.  Lawson, Director of Financial Restoration Ministries for Antioch, believes that developing relationships with the residents is the key to sustainable change on these streets.  “We believe in serving practically, both in word and in deed,” he added.

On a typical work day, volunteer crews of 30 to 50 people jump in by painting houses, cutting grass, picking up trash in alleyways, even unburying sidewalks that had been completely covered by grass.  The first work day took place last November on the 1800 and 1900 blocks of Sanger Avenue in the Sanger Heights Neighborhood, and they eventually moved their way up to 25th Street.  This past Saturday they headed over to 20th and Fort, and will eventually work on every block in their target area, which covers Waco Drive to Bosque Boulevard, from 18th to 25th Streets.  Each work day ends in a block party at which neighbors gather over lunch and discuss their vision for the neighborhood.

In fact, the vision of neighborhood residents is a major factor in the revitalization of the area, and one that sets it apart from other clean-up projects.  “We want to impart value back into the neighborhood and work with the neighbors to see the neighborhood revived,” Lawson said.  So what have the neighbors envisioned for their area?  With speeding and a lack of youth activities being the issues most mentioned by neighbors, they foresee additional sidewalks, stop signs, and street lights being installed as a practical first step.

When asked about the future of Come Together, Lawson expressed a desire to see both churches and local businesses join in, not just in their target area but in the rest of Sanger Heights and throughout Waco.  In the end, though, he believes that lasting change will only happen when the community believes they can do it themselves.  “It’s not about the church doing it all, but the neighbors and local businesses owning the process,” he added.

For more information, please contact Josh Lawson at josh-lawson@aminternational.org.


May 10th

RRHA-TX News Release

 

[Temple]  The Rural Rental Housing Association of Texas, Inc., the largest state trade association of owners, operators, developers and managers of rural multi-family housing, announces the resignation of Jeff Crozier, as its Executive Director, effective as of May 4, 2010. President Billie Shelburn thanks Mr. Crozier for his three year tenure as Executive Director and stated that the Association is stronger now than when he accepted the position in 2007. Ms. Shelburn further states: “On behalf of the Board of Directors, we wish Jeff well in his future endeavors and appreciate his commitment of rural multi-family housing”.     


RECON
Real Estate Center Online News
May 7, 2010

 

 

SAHA OPENS ARTISAN AT CREEKSIDE

 

SAN ANTONIO (San Antonio Business Journal) – Franklin Development Inc. and the San Antonio Housing Authority have opened the Artisan at Creekside apartment complex in the Old Union Stockyards close to downtown.

 

A mix of  one-, two- and three- bedroom units, the 252-unit complex is reserved for families with incomes that do not exceed 60 percent of San Antonio’s median income of $57,200.

The $27.5 million project on 10.6 acres off I-35 near US 90 was financed with tax credits and bonds issued by the San Antonio Housing Finance Corp.


RECON
Real Estate Center Online News
May 7, 2010

 

 

DFW HOME SALES, PRICES IMPROVE

DALLAS (Dallas Morning News) – Home sales in Dallas–Fort Worth increased almost 5 percent from first quarter 2009 to the same in 2010, according to real estate data provider Clear Capital.

The California-based company also ranked DFW in the country’s top five markets for home price growth so far this year.

Among the houses for sale in DFW, 40 percent are previously foreclosed properties, compared with 29 percent nationwide, according to Clear Capital.


RECON
Real Estate Center Online News
May 4, 2010

 

 

Austin Initiates Neighborhood Partner Program

AUSTIN (Austin American-Statesman) – The city is accepting applications for an experimental program that joins city dollars with volunteer labor to enhance neighborhoods.

The Neighborhood Partner Program was formed to split costs between the city and neighborhoods by using volunteers on the projects, allowing small-scale improvements to be made to neighborhoods by the people who live in them.

No funding has been set aside for the new program, but city leaders hope to allocate some money in next year’s budget, which will be available in October. The program will build up to 20 projects over one year. The program could be expanded if it is successful.

City officials say they do not intend for the program to replace spending on parks, roads, sidewalk repair and other public works improvements. Neither does the city intend to delay or abandon projects it has already scheduled.


RECON
Real Estate Center Online News
April 13, 2010
 

SEGUIN PREPARES HOUSING FOR CATERPILLAR

SEGUIN (San Antonio Business Journal) – Looking forward to the opening of a one million sf Caterpillar factory and the 1,400 jobs that will accompany it, this city just east of San Antonio has created three incentives to spur housing development to accommodate the influx of workers.

The first initiative features a permit waiver program for new single-family homes. The program includes waivers on building, electrical, plumbing and HVAC permits. It will run through Sept. 30. Construction must begin within 30 days of permit issuance and be completed within six months. Eligible homes will be served by at least one Seguin utility.

The second initiative is offering between $2,000 and $3,000 toward the construction or purchase of a new home to developers and buyers. Homes valued between $100,000 and $150,000 can receive a $2,000 advance, while homes priced above $150,000 will be eligible for a $3,000 incentive.

With the third initiative, the city has offered to reimburse a portion of the construction costs on the development of residential units in existing commercial buildings downtown. The new residential units must be on an upper-level vacant floor of an existing building to qualify. 


RECON
Real Estate Center Online News
April 13, 2010

 

 

HOUSTON HOMES RETAIN VALUE IN 2009

HOUSTON (Houston Chronicle) – Area single-family home prices weathered the economy well in 2009, remaining essentially flat with a median price of $72.58 per sf, according to an annual home price analysis commissioned by the Houston Chronicle.

The study analyzed the median price per sf of 52,100 homes sold through the Multiple Listings Service last year in Harris, Fort Bend, Montgomery, Galveston and Brazoria Counties. To be included, neighborhoods must have had at least five home sales. In 2009, 1,890 were listed, down from over 2,000 in 2008. Of all homes surveyed, 18 percent were new.

Some of the survey’s findings were:

  • homes priced between $80,000 and $150,000 made up the largest segment sold in the market;

  • 81 percent of the sales were outside Beltway 8;

  • Fort Bend was the only county to post a noticeable increase in median value;

  • values in more than 120 of the area's largest neighborhoods, with at least 1,000 homes, declined or were flat last year, while about 80 registered increases;

  • the most expensive home sale was $6.3 million, down from almost $10 million in 2008; and

  • values in more than half of the neighborhoods surveyed were down — some by as much as 50 percent.

While overall prices remained stable, sales fell 25 percent from their peak in 2006.

The percentage of foreclosure sales dipped slightly to 20.5 percent of total sales.


RECON
Real Estate Center Online News
April 13, 2010

 

 

 

TRAVIS PROPERTY VALUES FALL $6.5 BILLION

AUSTIN (Austin American-Statesman) – Preliminary estimates of the market value of Travis County properties are 5.3 percent below those in 2009, the first decline since 2003.

Patrick Brown, chief appraiser with the Travis Central Appraisal District, estimated the total market value of the property in the county at $116.9 billion, $6.5 billion below last year’s total value of $123.4 billion.

"These are predictions, not promises," said Brown, who is still analyzing the figures before sending out notices to taxpayers in a few weeks.

The estimate means local government leaders must decide whether to raise tax rates, cut budgets or both to compensate for tens of millions of dollars in lost property tax revenue.

Residential property assessment increases are restricted to 10 percent or less by state law. However, the law also requires that assessed values continue to rise until they equal market values.


Fannie Mae News

April 6, 2010

  WASHINGTON, D.C. — A new national survey gauging attitudes toward housing finds that two-thirds of Americans (65 percent) still prefer owning a home, despite the challenging economic environment and the housing downturn. The Fannie Mae National Housing Survey, conducted between December 2009 and January 2010, polled homeowners and renters to assess their confidence in homeownership as an investment, the current state of their household finances, views on the U.S. housing finance system and overall confidence in the economy.

"Despite the recent downturn in the housing sector, Americans continue to value homeownership and think about their homes in ways that go much deeper than the financial investment," said Mike Williams, President and CEO, Fannie Mae. "The public also strongly believes in the importance of upholding the financial commitment involved in buying and owning a home, even during these challenging times when home values have fallen."

Survey Shows More Cautious Approach among Consumers

The survey revealed that homeowners and renters alike are taking a more cautious approach to homeownership. Nearly a quarter of renters polled (23 percent) say they will buy a home later than once planned. In addition, Americans with traditional, fixed-rate mortgages with predictable payments are significantly more satisfied than those with other types of mortgages. Respondents cited non-financial reasons such as safety (43 percent) and quality of local schools (33 percent) as driving factors in wanting to own a home, ahead of financial considerations.

"Consumers are still committed to owning a home, but are showing increased cautiousness, regardless of whether they rent, own their homes outright or have a mortgage," said Doug Duncan, Vice President and Chief Economist, Fannie Mae. "They are rebalancing their attitudes toward housing and homeownership by adopting a more realistic, long-term approach, and are less willing to take risks. This focus on sustainable housing is better for the economy, better for the housing market and better for America's families."

A majority of consumers (60 percent) believe that buying a home today is harder than it was for their parents, and nearly seven in ten (68 percent) think it will be even more difficult for their children. Most respondents (88 percent) also believe that walking away from an underwater mortgage is not acceptable, but those who know someone who has defaulted are more than twice as likely to have seriously considered stopping payments on their mortgage.

Key Survey Findings

The following key findings illustrate broad consumer perspectives on a range of related issues, including: current attitudes toward the economy and housing; present conditions for homeownership; owning versus renting; the present climate for borrowing; current mortgage satisfaction; the impact of being "underwater" on borrowers; and attitudes toward defaulting. In some instances, data are compared to a 2003 study on housing by Fannie Mae.

Housing and the Economy

  • Eight in ten respondents consider homeownership important to the economy.
     
  • Only 31 percent think that the economy is on the right track, but 44 percent expect their personal financial situation to improve in the next year. Delinquent borrowers are even more optimistic about the future, with 63 percent expecting they will be in a stronger financial position in the next year.
     
  • Nearly two-thirds of respondents (64 percent) think it is a good time to buy a house, and nearly one in three (31 percent) think now is a very good time to buy a house. This is nearly as many who said it was a good time to buy in 2003 (66 percent), well before home prices peaked.
     
  • Nearly three-quarters (73 percent) think housing prices will go up or stay the same over the next year, including 37 percent who think prices will increase and 36 percent who feel prices will remain about the same.

Desirability of Homeownership

  • Seven out of ten respondents (70 percent) said they believe buying a home continues to be one of the safest investments available. This compares to 74 percent who think putting money into a bank account (money market or savings account) is safe. In contrast, only 17 percent believe buying stocks is a safe investment.
     
  • Nearly two-thirds (65 percent) of survey respondents prefer owning to renting, citing non-financial reasons such as safety (43 percent) and quality of local schools (33 percent) as driving factors in wanting to own a home, ahead of economic considerations.
     
  • Americans with 30-year fixed-rate mortgages are significantly more satisfied (93 percent) than those with other types of mortgages (76 percent for those with hybrid ARMs and 68 percent for those with ARMs).

Renters' Views on Renting and Homeownership

  • Nearly eight in ten renters (79 percent) participating in the survey believe that renting has been positive for them and their families.
     
  • The two most common reasons cited by renters for choosing to rent instead of buy are: the belief that their credit history is not good enough to qualify for a mortgage (54 percent) and that they would be unable to afford the purchase or upkeep of a home (47 percent).
     
  • Nearly seven in ten renters (67 percent) plan to buy a home at some point in the future.
     
  • Less than half (44 percent) of those who currently rent said they would buy a house if they were to move, and 23 percent said they would purchase a new home later than they planned.

Challenges Facing Homeowners

  • Most respondents (60 percent) believe it is harder for them to get a mortgage in order to purchase a home than their parents. Nearly seven in ten (68 percent) think it will be harder for the next generation.
     
  • Survey respondents cited poor credit (22 percent), their income (19 percent), job security (15 percent) and having enough for a down payment (also 15 percent) as the top obstacles to obtaining a home loan.
     
  • The majority (76 percent) expressed some degree of confidence that they would receive the information they need to choose the right loan if they bought or refinanced a home today, although only 47 percent said they are "very confident."

Attitudes about Delinquency

  • Nearly nine in ten Americans (88 percent), including seven in ten who are delinquent on their own mortgages, do not believe it is acceptable for people to stop making payments on an underwater mortgage, while eight percent believe it is acceptable.
     
  • However, when asked if financial distress makes stopping payments on an underwater mortgage acceptable, 15 percent of respondents said yes, or nearly double the eight percent who believe it is acceptable generally.
     
  • Both delinquent mortgage borrowers and those current on their mortgage payments are more than twice as likely to have seriously considered stopping their payments if they know someone who has already defaulted.

Survey Methodology

From December 12, 2009 — January 12, 2010, Penn Schoen Berland, in partnership with Oliver Wyman, conducted 3,451 telephone interviews with Americans age 18 and older.

This included a random sample of 3,051 members of the general population, including 887 homeowners, 1,110 mortgage borrowers, 908 renters, and 338 underwater borrowers (those who report owing at least 5% more on their mortgage than their home is worth). The overall margin of error for the general population sample is +/- 1.77% and larger for subgroups.

An additional oversample of 400 random national delinquent borrowers was also polled. The margin of error for the delinquent oversample is +/- 4.9% and larger for subgroups. Delinquency was defined as not having made a mortgage payment in the past 60 or more days.

For more information about the survey, visit http://www.fanniemae.com/about/housing-survey.html


3.18.10  

 

Fannie Mae Releases Mission Performance Report

 

WASHINGTON, DC — Fannie Mae (FNM/NYSE) today released "Helping Housing Recover: A Report on Fannie Mae's Mission Performance," which describes the company's efforts to provide liquidity, stability and affordability to the nation's housing finance system.

The report cites $823.6 billion in funding the company provided last year to help keep the single-family and multifamily mortgage markets operating. The report also notes that the company enabled 1.7 million low- and moderate-income families to obtain affordable housing in 2009, and helped more than 160,000 struggling borrowers with Fannie Mae-owned loans keep their homes through loan modification or other loan assistance.

"Fannie Mae has been asked to play a significant role and received significant government assistance to support borrowers and the country's housing finance system during these difficult economic times," said Michael J. Williams, President and CEO. "We take this duty very seriously, and this report chronicles our efforts to fulfill this critical mission. We will build on our work with our industry partners and the government to help struggling borrowers stay in their homes, provide additional financing for affordable housing and restore the health of America's housing market."

Through the company's funding efforts, Fannie Mae provided financing in 2009 that helped:

  • 2.5 million borrowers refinance into loans with lower payments, better terms or to meet other needs. Many borrowers were able to refinance despite having lost equity.

  • 600,000 borrowers buy homes during the tightest mortgage credit market in decades.

  • 372,000 rental units be purchased, refinanced or rehabilitated.

To view the complete report, please visit http://www.fanniemae.com/about/mission-report.html


3.17.10  

Source: Bloomberg, Craig Torres and Scott Lanman (03/16/2010)

 

   Fed To Stop Buying MBS

    The Federal Reserve renewed its commitment to keep key interest rates near zero for an “extended period,” but also confirmed that it will stop buying mortgage-backed securities at the end of March.
    The Fed, whose regular meeting began Tuesday, said that “housing starts have been flat at depressed levels” and “employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls” as a reason for extending the cap on interest rates.   

    “The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to promote economic recovery and price stability,” the Federal Open Market Committee statement said.


 

Source: The Wall Street Journal, James R. Hagerty (02/06/2010) and The Washington Post, V. Dion Haynes (02/05/10)

 

   MBA Feels Market Crunch, Sells Headquarters


    The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) has sold its 10-story headquarters for $41.3 million, below the $79 million the trade group says it paid for the property in 2007.

    The MBA, which was underwater on its loan, refused to discuss its situation. A spokesperson for the MBA said the organization has reached “an agreement with all relevant parties.”

    CoStar Inc., a commercial real estate information firm, which purchased the property, says it plans to move its headquarters into the building.

    "It's a little bit of irony that in the middle of the mortgage crisis brought on by the bad lending practices of many members of the Mortgage Bankers Association that they got caught up in the same problem," Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, a liberal research group, told The Washington Post.
   
As the real estate market crashed, the association's membership has continued to fall. Its membership fell to 2,500 from 3,000 in 2008, officials had said.
   
The company was “fortunate to be able to take advantage of what we see as a historic opportunity to secure an exceptional asset at a greatly reduced price,” Andrew Florance, CoStar’s CEO, said in a statement.


 

3.17.10

 

Fannie Mae News Release

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.16.10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
Drop in Home Sales Underscores Fragile Recovery According to Fannie Mae's Economic and Mortgage Market Analysis Group

Consumer Spending Shows Promise Despite Low Levels of Consumer Confidence

WASHINGTON, DC — Housing activity is expected to rebound later this year but at a slower pace than previously projected according to the March 2010 Economic Outlook released today by Fannie Mae's (FNM/NYSE) Economics & Mortgage Market Analysis Group. A surprising drop in new and existing home sales disappointed, but the setback is viewed as temporary with gains expected in the second quarter then trending up on a sustainable basis by year end. The outlook continues to call for moderate economic growth of 3.0 percent for 2010, as the labor market appears poised to create jobs, the service sector shows improvement, and consumer spending joins in as part of the economic storyline. Consumer spending grew a solid 0.3 percent in January, suggesting a pickup in the first quarter despite the possibility of a slow down in February.

"The recent growth in consumer spending is a positive sign for first quarter gains. However, anxiety over job and income prospects continues to weigh on consumer confidence which will likely lead to moderate spending growth in the coming quarters," said Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan. "Strengthening growth in the service sector and more favorable financial conditions overall keep us optimistic that we are moving forward with the recovery, albeit at a lower trajectory than previously forecast."

The Economic Outlook includes the Economic Developments commentary, Economic Forecast, and Housing Forecast — which detail movement of interest rates, the housing market, the mortgage market, and the overall economic climate. To read the full March 2010 Economic Outlook, visit the Economics & Mortgage Market Analysis site at www.fanniemae.com/media/economics/index.jhtml.


Texas Foreclosure Prevention Task ForceTexas Department of Savings and Mortgage Lending Registration

and Licensing Update

Certain HUD-Approved Housing Counselors Not Subject to Registration and Licensing Under NMLS and Texas SML

Members of the Texas Foreclosure Prevention Task Force (TFPTF) met recently with Texas Department of Savings and Mortgage Lending Commissioner Douglas Foster, Director of Licensing Sandra Weller, and General Counsel Caroline Jones, to discuss the registration and licensing requirements for HUD-Approved Housing Counselors under the Nationwide Mortgage Licensing System (NMLS) and the Texas Savings and Mortgage Lending (SML).

 

Commissioner Foster understands the critical work of the housing counselors in Texas and indicated that certain counselors would not be subject to registration and licensing under NMLS or Texas SML.

 

Specifically, counselors who are an employee of a 501(c)(3) HUD-Approved Housing Counseling Agency when engaged in activities (outlined in 24 CFR § 214) such as foreclosure prevention counseling, pre-purchase counseling, and reverse mortgage counseling, but not engaged in originating loans or the decision making process of loan orginination are NOT subject to registration and licensing.

 

See detailed description here for those NOT required to have this license:

http://mortgage.nationwidelicensingsystem.org/slr/PublishedStateDocuments/TX-SML-Auxiliary-RMLO-Desciption.pdf

 
The following information is further detailed on the NMLS Resource Center website here: http://mortgage.nationwidelicensingsystem.org/Pages/default.aspx click on the blue map and select TX SML.

See also License Descriptions and Checklists

Auxiliary Mortgage Loan Activity Residential Mortgage Loan Originator License

Any individual who is employed by, or volunteers with, (1) any political subdivision of Texas or the federal government or (2) any organization that qualifies for an exemption from Texas franchise and sales tax as a 501(c)(3) organization, and that are involved in affordable home ownership programs by conducting residential loan origination activity as a residential mortgage loan originator with a borrower. (More Details)

The Texas Foreclosure Prevention Task Force would like to thank Commissioner Foster and his staff for their leadership on this important issue.
 
We would also like to thank the following Texas Foreclosure Prevention Task Force representatives who attended the meeting with the Commissioner and his staff:  David Long, President of Texas State Affordable Housing Corporation and TFPTF Co-Chair, JoAnn DePenning, CEO of J DePenning Consulting, Inc. and TFPTF Co-Chair, Steve Carriker Executive Director of Texas Association of Community Development Corporations, Celine Thomasson Management Consultant NeighborWorks America, Sherrie Young Executive Director The Credit Coalition, Julie Gunter Sr. Community Affairs Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, and Todd Mark Vice President of Education for CCCS of Greater Dallas
.
 
For more information visit the TFPTF web site at www.texasforeclosurehelp.org .

3.11.10

Source: Real Estate Center

 

Headlines from the Front Lines

Dotzour Comments on Inflation, Recession, China and REO Damage

Release No. 14-0311

 

COLLEGE STATION, Tex. (Real Estate Center) — Chief Economist Dr. Mark Dotzour is crisscrossing the nation delivering his economic message and collecting valuable data for the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University. Here is a recap of this week’s findings gleaned from meetings of the National Association of Business Economics in Washington, D.C.

 

Among the comments he heard, were:

 

·         “Clearly there is virtually no threat of inflation in the next two years.”

·         “There’s virtually no chance of the Fed increasing interest rates (maybe a symbolic small move aside).”

·         “The last recession, the Fed waited until unemployment was 5.5 percent before tightening.”

·         “We won't get to that level for several years.”

·         “The threat is for deflation across the globe, with the exception of China.”

·         “China’s money supply is up 30 percent from last year.  Our M3 (the Fed’s measure of the money supply) is virtually unchanged from a year ago, and available credit is less than last year.”

“The Congressional Budget Office said the United States is going to be unable to pay for the social contract with America,” said Dotzour. “It’s only a matter of when and how the adjustments for failed promises have to take place. Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security cannot be funded at current levels of spending.”

 

Dotzour heard a representative of Barclays, a worldwide financial services provider, say that the real damage to housing values occurs when the real estate owned (REO) dominos begin to topple.

 

“Just because a house gets foreclosed, prices don't fall,” said Dotzour.  “It's when the REO is disposed that the value impact occurs.  Foreclosures have been postponed, first due to a moratorium and now due to banks having to prove they tried a modification before they can foreclose.  So the major price impact on the housing market is not over yet.”

 

If the core rate of inflation drops to less than 1 percent, expect the Fed to re-engage in quantitative easing (printing money to create inflation), reported Dotzour.

 

The news from across the pond is not good either, he said.

 

Dotzour heard a commodity specialist say that China is purchasing way more hard metals than they need for the level of industrial production that they are experiencing.  He said it was clear that they are stockpiling these hard metal commodities. 

 

“This reminds me of the oil market the month before the summer Olympics in 2008,” said the Center’s chief economist. “China hoarded diesel in case they had power failures at the games.”

 

Prices for all commodities have skyrocketed since the day the Fed announced quantitative easing.  An oil representative said that oil could stay high and go higher because marginal demand is coming from China and India. 

 

“If and when China's bubble blows, the entire commodity complex could come crashing down fast,” said Dotzour.

 

“All of a sudden Russia, Brazil and Australia don’t look so robust.  Money will start flowing hard into the United States.  Again, this makes me think ten-year Treasuries might look pretty saucy right now at 3.7 percent.

 

“Surprisingly,” reports Dotzour, “nobody is really talking about states, cities and school districts.  Their layoffs and reduced spending will impact local suppliers all over the country.”

 

“None of this is pretty,” said Dotzour, “but investors and business people need to be aware of the environment that they are working in.”